A year and a half into her term, Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum still commands majority approval, but her popularity has slipped notably since 2025. According to a new spring 2026 survey by Pew Research Center, 64% of Mexican adults view Sheinbaum favorably—down from 83% last year. The share holding a very favorable opinion halved from 46% to 24%.

Sheinbaum, the first female president of Mexico, took office in October 2024 after a landslide victory for the left-leaning Morena party. Her early tenure was marked by continuity with her predecessor Andrés Manuel López Obrador's policies, including social programs and a heavy emphasis on energy sovereignty. However, challenges such as sluggish economic growth, persistent cartel violence, and corruption scandals have dented public confidence.

Approval on Specific Issues

Sheinbaum receives mixed ratings on her handling of key national concerns. Education remains her strongest issue, with 65% approving. The economy—despite overall declining confidence—still earns approval from 61% of Mexicans. Relations with the United States, a perennial hot-button topic, garner 55% approval. But on fighting organized crime and drug trafficking, only 45% approve, while 53% disapprove. Similarly, 45% approve of her anti-corruption efforts vs. 53% disapproval. These figures reflect the ongoing security crisis in Mexico, where powerful cartels continue to operate with impunity, and perceptions of impunity remain high.

The survey was conducted from February 20 to April 10, 2026, a period that saw major violence linked to the killing of cartel leader Nemesio Oseguera Cervantes ("El Mencho") during a Mexican special forces operation. Fieldwork ended before the U.S. indictment of Sinaloa Governor Rubén Rocha Moya, who stepped down amid allegations of collusion with the Sinaloa drug cartel. Such events likely influenced respondents' views on security and governance.

Party Favorability Declines

Morena, the party Sheinbaum belongs to, also suffered a drop in favorability: 61% now view it favorably, down from 78% in 2025. Despite this decline, Morena remains the only major party with net positive ratings. Among opposition parties, Citizens’ Movement (MC) stands at 44% favorable, the National Action Party (PAN) at 30%, and the Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI) at just 26%. The PRI, which dominated Mexican politics for most of the 20th century, has seen its support erode over the past decade, with its favorability falling below 30% since 2019.

Historical data from Pew Research Center shows that Morena's ratings had been climbing steadily since its formation—from 34% in 2015 to 78% in 2025—making the current decline a notable reversal. However, the party's core base of supporters—often lower-income and older voters—remains loyal. Sheinbaum's approval among Morena supporters is significantly higher on every issue, including a 56% approval rate on corruption compared to 37% among non-supporters.

Economy and Democracy: Growing Discontent

Mexicans' assessments of the national economy have worsened. Only 49% now say the economic situation is good, down from 61% in 2025. This aligns with Mexico's GDP contracting in the first quarter of 2026, partly due to weaker demand from the United States and persistent inflation affecting household purchasing power. The decline is steepest among those identifying as left-leaning: the share saying the economy is good fell 24 percentage points since last year, versus 6-point drops for centrists and right-leaning respondents. This suggests that Sheinbaum's traditional base is increasingly disillusioned with economic performance.

Democratic satisfaction has also plummeted. Just 33% of Mexicans are satisfied with how democracy is working in Mexico, down from 51% in 2025. Again, the drop is driven by left-leaning citizens—satisfaction among them fell 25 percentage points, while centrists and right-leaning saw smaller declines. This deterioration in democratic satisfaction mirrors broader regional trends, but Mexico's decline is particularly sharp. The survey notes that those on the left were initially more optimistic after Sheinbaum's election, but persistent governance challenges have eroded their confidence.

Corruption and crime remain central concerns. When asked about government performance, more than half of Mexicans express dissatisfaction with efforts to combat both organized crime (53% disapprove) and general corruption (53% disapprove). These findings underscore the difficulty Sheinbaum faces in delivering on campaign promises of a "Fourth Transformation" that would root out corruption and reduce violence. While her administration has touted social spending and cultural initiatives, the security situation remains precarious.

Historical and Political Context

Sheinbaum’s presidency comes during a period of intense political polarization in Mexico, though the left-right divide has not prevented her from maintaining majority approval. However, the data suggest she is losing ground among those who were most supportive. The 2024 election coalition—Morena, the Green Party (PVEM), and the Labor Party (PT)—won by a large margin, but governing has proven more complicated. The survey shows that while Morena remains dominant, its coalition partners have far less recognition; for example, the Green Party and Labor Party were not separately rated in the survey.

Relations with the United States, under President Donald Trump's second term, have been testy, with renewed threats of tariffs and stricter border enforcement. However, Sheinbaum has maintained a pragmatic approach, focusing on cooperation on migration and fentanyl interdiction. The 55% approval on handling U.S. relations suggests that Mexicans broadly support this strategy, even if they are less impressed with domestic security.

The survey’s 1,017 respondents were interviewed face-to-face in Spanish, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.8 percentage points. The fieldwork period captures sentiments prior to the most recent headlines, meaning current views could be even more negative given the aftermath of the cartel violence and political scandal.

Looking ahead, Sheinbaum faces the challenge of reviving economic optimism and regaining trust in her security policies. Without improvement, the erosion of support among her base could pose risks for Morena in the 2027 midterm elections. For now, she remains popular, but the trajectory is concerning for her administration.

Source:Pew Research Center News