A declassified White House intelligence report has shed light on Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s (MBS) deep concern about losing US support if President Donald Trump lost the 2020 election. The assessment, part of a trove of documents released by Trump, provides a rare glimpse into the high-stakes calculations of a key US ally during a tumultuous political period.

The report states, “In mid-2019, Saudi Crown Prince Muhammad Bin Salman expressed concern that Riyadh would lose US support for its priorities if the President were to lose the election in 2020.” This statement underscores the close alignment between the Trump administration and the Saudi leadership, particularly after Trump’s strong pro-Saudi stance on issues like arms sales, the killing of journalist Jamal Khashoggi, and the blockade of Qatar.

Background of US-Saudi Relations Under Trump

The Trump administration marked an unprecedented era of warmth between Washington and Riyadh. Trump frequently praised MBS as a reformer and made Saudi Arabia his first foreign trip as president, signaling a shift from the Obama administration’s more cautious approach. Trump’s son-in-law, Jared Kushner, cultivated a personal rapport with MBS, which helped Saudi Arabia secure US support for its war in Yemen and its campaign against Iran-backed Houthi rebels.

The release of the declassified documents occurred as Trump sought to raise alarms about purported foreign threats to election integrity. However, the documents did not contain a “smoking gun” validating his alarmist claims. Notably, Israel is not mentioned in the released materials, despite the Trump administration’s strong alignment with Israeli policies, including moving the US embassy to Jerusalem and brokering the Abraham Accords.

The report also reveals that after Trump lost to Joe Biden in 2020, US-Saudi ties indeed deteriorated. Biden had campaigned on a pledge to make Saudi Arabia a “pariah” state and swiftly halted support for offensive operations in Yemen. However, as global energy prices surged following the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Biden pivoted toward repairing the relationship. By 2023, his administration was actively pushing for a historic normalization deal between Israel and Saudi Arabia.

Other Nations’ Influence Efforts

The intelligence assessment also focuses on Turkey’s covert lobbying and influence campaigns. It states that “senior Turkish officials, including President Erdogan, believe that segments of the US government have an entrenched, anti-Turkey viewpoint, and as a result have sought to covertly influence US politicians’ and political candidates’ thinking on Turkey.” The report adds that “Ankara’s efforts have, over the past year, included covert funding of US municipal election campaigns, unregistered lobbying efforts, and messaging on social media by state-owned outlets.”

Turkey’s influence operations are part of a broader pattern of foreign interference that includes Iran, though the document notes that Iran’s efforts are less extensive than those of China and Russia. The assessment highlights that Iran is among the leading foreign actors attempting to influence US elections, but it does not provide specifics. The lack of detail suggests that while Iran remains a focal point for US intelligence, its capabilities may be overstated or overshadowed by the greater resources and coordination of other nations.

MBS’s Calculations and Regional Dynamics

The concern expressed by MBS in 2019 reflects his deep understanding that the US political system could shift dramatically. The crown prince, who had staked much of his domestic and foreign policy success on Trump’s support, recognized that a Biden presidency would likely pursue a different agenda. Historically, US-Saudi relations have weathered many transitions, but the personal nature of the Trump-MBS bond was unique.

Analysts note that MBS’s worries were compounded by the Khashoggi affair, which had damaged his international reputation. While Trump defended MBS against widespread condemnation, Biden’s administration showed no such hesitation. In early 2021, the Biden administration released an intelligence report concluding that MBS approved the operation to capture or kill Khashoggi, marking a significant departure from Trump’s silence on the matter.

The normalization talks between Israel and Saudi Arabia represent a major diplomatic prize that both the Trump and Biden administrations pursued. Trump helped broker the Abraham Accords, which normalized relations between Israel and the UAE, Bahrain, Sudan, and Morocco. Saudi Arabia was always viewed as the ultimate goal. Biden’s team revived the talks in 2023, with Secretary of State Antony Blinken visiting Riyadh multiple times. Key sticking points include the creation of a viable Palestinian state, Saudi civilian nuclear program restrictions, and security guarantees from Washington.

The declassified documents also touch on China and Russia as the leading foreign actors attempting to influence US elections. While the specifics remain redacted, the acknowledgment of their activities aligns with multiple intelligence assessments that have warned of ongoing interference efforts. The Trump campaign has repeatedly claimed about foreign threats without providing concrete evidence, and the latest release does little to support those claims.

The documents overall paint a picture of a global landscape where nations large and small seek to shape US policy through both overt and covert means. For Saudi Arabia, the reliance on a single administration’s favor proved risky. MBS’s expressed fear of losing support if Trump lost was prescient, as the subsequent shift in US policy forced Riyadh to recalibrate its approach. Despite initial tensions, the two countries have managed to find common ground on issues like oil production and regional security, though the path forward remains uncertain.

The partial redactions in the document leave many questions unanswered, particularly regarding the extent of Saudi lobbying and the specific concerns MBS raised. However, the report’s release itself is remarkable, coming from a former president seeking to use classified intelligence to shape political narratives. It underscores the politicization of intelligence in an era of intense partisan conflict.

As the 2024 election approaches, foreign interference remains a top concern for US intelligence agencies. The declassified assessment serves as a reminder that allies and adversaries alike are constantly monitoring the US political landscape and adapting their strategies based on who is in power. For Saudi Arabia, the lesson is clear: investing in personal relationships with one party may provide short-term gains but long-term uncertainty.

Source:MSN News